The good news is that the ceasefire agreement will come into force on Sunday despite last-minute concerns that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet could torpedo the entire effort. Much of the uncertainty was a staged political drama to get the religious parties to disapprove the deal and keep their orthodox support base intact. The government was in no danger of being toppled, as the Israel꧃i opposition, keen to bring the remaining hostages back home, would have lent support to the PM.
So far only the first part of the ceasefire deal has been worked out in some detail; the second and third sections rem༺ain ⭕work in progress after the initial phase ends. Fears that a complicated three-part agreement could fall by the wayside once the initial 33 Israeli hostages and roughly 700-900 or more of Palestinian prisoners are exchanged are very real.
Whether the ceasefire deal holds after the hostage-prisoner swap is uncertain. But for now the deal ensures that much-needed humanitarian supplies flow into the besieged Gaza Strip. The agreement is for 600 trucks a day, but going by past experience, delivering aid will pose enormous logistical challenges with the Israeli soldiers taking hours to complete security checks of each vehicle and suspicion of UN and AID workers engaged in the distribution of supplies. Whether things will be different tꦗhis time around remains to be seen.&nb෴sp;
Staggered withdrawal of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will also take place to ensure that Palestinians re🦩turn to their homes. But military withdrawal will be stopped if there is any resistance from Hamas, and the IDF will meet such efforts with a “forceful response.” Without monitoring on the gr🍰ound by a neutral force, much will depend on what the Israeli army perceives as resistance. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, while announcing the deal on Wednesday, also said Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. would act as guarantors of the agreement. They will work with Israel and Hamas to ensure both parties implement all three phases of the agreement in full. The minister also said in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera that the “[UN] Security Council to issue a binding resolution to implement the [ceasefire] agreement.” Again, as we have seen in the past, UN mandates have little meaning on the ground.
Ceasefire And The Second And Third Phases
There are many loose ends, yet expectations are that the first part of the deal will be worked out. On the 16th day of the implementation of the ceasefire, negotiations for the next phase begin. According to CNN, the ceasefire is not guaranteed to continue beyond the first phase. However, an unnamed Israeli official quoted by the news channel said as Israel is keen to “bring all our hostages back home,” the government will enter negotiations for the second phase in good faith, which could lead to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. When talks begin on phase two o𒅌f the deal, the remaining hostages still alive will be exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners as the Israeli forces continue to withdraw. If this continues smoothly, the temporary ceasefire will become permanent. All Israeli captives will be released before a total IDF withdrawal from Gaza. The last part of t𒅌he agreement will see the remains of the dead hostages returned to their families and the reconstruction plan for Gaza.
There are question marks about whether Netanyahu wants to end the war.
From all reports in the Israeli press, Netanyahu is not keen to stop the war but has done so mainly because he is in no mood to displease Donald Trump. Netanyahu is in a good position as Israel has got the upper hand and is emerging as the most powerful military force in t♛he region. Hamas has been destroyed but not eliminated; in Lebanon, Hezbollah is no longer a threat, and the Assad regime in Syria is out, and with it all of Iran’s proxies in the region are neutralised. Iran itself i🎐s in no position to act against Israel without the help of its proxies. Israel is more secure today than it was before October 7. So why continue with the war in Gaza, as there is little more the IDF can do? The strip has already been razed to the ground.
Many believe the war helps Netanyahu to continue his grip on Israeli politics. An end to the fighting will mean fresh elections that Netanyahu may or may not win. A return to peace will also lead to investigations against him, and he could well be indicted. However, he also has to factor in the return of Donald Trump to the White House. While Netanyahu is a close friend of Trump, he knows that the president-elect is unpredictable and determined to project American power, unlike Joe Biden, who could be bullied at whim by Israel. No one takes chances with T⛄rump, and Netanyahu is no exception. For now he is willing to go along with Trump in the hope that the new president will give friend Bibi a free license to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Who Controls Gaza?
Israel has not prepared for the day after. Once the six-week exchange is over and the IDF withdraws from populated areas and takes position nearer the border, who takes charge of Gaza? After the Hamas-Fatah feud following the group’s victory in the legislative elections in Gaza in January 2006, an internecine fight between the two Palestinian factions led to the expulsion of Fatah fighters from the Gaza Strip. Despite the fact that the Hamas leaders have all been wiped off, and🍌 its October 7 misadventure resulted in untold suffering for Palestinians, the group has not been obliterated. The Palestinians have to resolve the leadership question, as it is clear that Israel will never agree to Hamas control of Gaza again. It is up to the Palestinians to have substantive political leadership to take responsibility for rebuilding the Gaza Strip.
Rebuilding Gaza
Billions of dollars are requi💦red to rebuild homes and infrastructure completely destroyed in Gaza. W🐬ho will bear the cost, and who will oversee the massive reconstruction program? Getting Gaza back on its feet will require a minimum of three to five years.
The larger question is, can the ceasefire lead 🥃to permanent peace between Israel a🐎nd Palestine?
“The greatest challenge will be to transform the agreement from a hostage and prisoner exchange to a sustainable ceasefire deal that ends the. At the moment, there seems to be insufficient political will within the Netanyahu administration to end the war and withdraw from all of Gaza’s territory. Qatar’s influence with key interlocutors in the Trump administration—above all Witkoff—will have to be used proactively to ensure the new White House does not take pressure off Israel’s far-right government," strategic analyst Andrea Krieg of King’s College, London, wrote in his blog. It was Trump’s representative, Steve Witkoff, who got Netanyahu to agree to a deal that was first unveiled by President Joe Biden last year.
“Only when phase one of the deal can be transformed into phase two and three will the road to a long-term solution in Gaza runꦯ thr🐈ough Doha,” Krieg wrote in his blog.
Is the world ready to work on a complicated peace deal that ensures that Israel and Palestinians live side by side and a🦂t peace? This is a tough ask.
Much before the October 7 Hamas attack, the international community, including the Arab states, had already turned its back on Palestine. Andrea Krieg, an expert on the region, believes that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states can unitedly work with the Trump administration to actively shape a permanent peace agreement. That is not possible🍸 without giving Palestinians a fair deal.
The Trump administration can play an effective role in getting this through if it puts its mind to it. Earlier Trump had warned Hamas of consequences if Israeli hostages were not released, but beyond an end to the war, not much is known about Trump’s views on the Palestine issue. Neither is he interested in being a peacemaker unless there is something for him iওn the deal.
During his first term in the White House, Trump succeeded in getting the Abraham Accords signed between Israel and several Muslim countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. But Saudi Arabia, the most influential country in the region, refused to sign on the dotted line following Israel’s war on Gaza and the widespread destruction that followed. ℱSaudi Arabia’s powerful Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) is reportedly eager to do so but is being restrained by the King, who does not wish to offend public sentiment that is overwhelmingly anti-Israel.
Trump is close to the Saudis, and the kingdom with other Gulf countries can persuade him to do more for a lasting solution. The Gulf nations, especially Saudi Arabia, have enormous leverage with Trump. They need to take the bull by the horns and get Trump to act for an end to a state of 🀅permanent hostility between Israel and Palestine. But that 𒁏is a tall ask.
