Having won the presidential elections on the 'Make America Great Again' slogan, Donald Trump is bent on changing the established rules꧃ of the game. Will it also mean a sharp turn in US foreign policy, as Trump is keen on asserting American dominance across the length and breadth of the globe? The broad contours of American foreign policy is unlikely to change but the execution and style will be dramatically different under Trump’s presidency.
🔜True to form, President Trump’s inaugural speech was full of hyperbole and over the top rhetoric.
💟"The golden age of America begins right now…We will be the envy of every nation and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer," he proclaimed after taking oath.
🗹Joe Biden and Kamala Harris listened passively to Trump’s allegation that under their watch America was weak and a pushover for the rest of the world. This is far from the truth, but Trump chose to project the Biden-Harris tenure as a time when the US was at its weakest. Biden though, did appear helpless while dealing with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is more due to Biden’s belief in quiet diplomacy and working behind closed doors, instead of relying on bombastic rhetoric and name-calling.
His first acts since taking oath has been to pull out of both the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organisation✤, much as in his previous term. He has no faith in the UN system like many Republicans though the US played a leading role in setting up the UN at the end of World War two.
China and India
🦩China remains the most important challenge for US power and much of Trump’s foreign policy will be aimed at countering the world’s second most powerful country. Successive US presidents since Bill Clinton’s second term have done so. Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia was also an attempt to contain China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
George Bush’s wooing of India and the US-India civil nuclear deal was again a balancing act for Washington. As another large Asian power, democratic India could be used to counter China’s attempts to establish itself as the preeminent Asian power. The bipartisan support for India in the US Congress ꦫis also with an eye to China. There may be a few hiccups in India-US relations on trade and tariff’s, however much of this can be smoothed out through negotiations. The fact that Trump’s brand new secretary of state Marco Rubio, met the Quad foreign minister’s on the first day of his tenure, is an indication that the US, India, Japan, Australia group will continue to play a key role in thwarting China in the Indo-Pacific.
🔯India’s foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar, who is in Washington held a bilateral meeting with Rubio where the latter "emphasised the Trump administration's desire to work with India to advance economic ties and address concerns related to irregular migration. After the meeting, Jaishankar posted on X : "Reviewed our extensive bilateral partnership, of which @secrubio has been a strong advocate. Also exchanged views on a wide range of regional and global issues. Look forward to closely working with him to advance our strategic cooperation." New Delhi has already been cooperating with the Biden administration to take back plane loads of illegal migrants sent out by the US.
H-1B visas,🦩 under which hundreds of Indian engineers work in top US companies will not pose much of a problem. Trump repeated his long held view that legal migration, especially qualified people are welcome to live and work in the US. The tech-moguls who have been cosy-ing up to Trump are keen on allowing H-1B visas by which these giant corporates are able to rake in huge profits. However the new administration’s decision to deny birthright citizenship will adversely affect Indians living and working in the US with H-1B visas. Green Card holders and students or those on visiting visas will all be affected. It will lead to Indians opting out of the US system. The order is already been challenged in 18 US states governed by Democrats. What finally happens is unclear, but it will be a long complicated process.
End to Wars
꧋Trump professes to be peace-maker under whom the US will not waste precious American lives on foreign wars. But is he committed to be a peace maker? Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff played a crucial role in getting Israel’s Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire deal that came into force a day ahead of Trump’s inauguration. But the question remains, whether Trump is going to spend time and energy to promote lasting peace between Israel and Palestine. Trump did not seem keen, as in recent remarks he said it was "their war".
💛One of the first acts of the Trump administration was to remove sanctions slapped by the Biden on certain Israeli settlers in the West Bank. This is a clear indication that Trump will not restrain Israel from occupying more and more Palestinian land.
♛Trump’s admiration for Russian president Vladimir Putin is well recorded. Earlier he had said that he would end the Ukraine war within a day of assuming office. "The war should have never started. If you had a competent President, which you didn't, the war wouldn't have happened. The war in Ukraine would have never happened if I were the president," Trump had said.
🥃"Russia never would have gone into Ukraine. I had a very strong understanding with Putin. That would have never, ever happened. He disrespected Biden. Very simple. He disrespects people. He's smart.’’ Trump is likely to meet Putin at some future date and work for peace, but it is unclear when. According to PTI, the President said he is ready to meet Putin at any time.
♉"Anytime they want, I'll meet. Millions of people are being killed... It's a vicious situation and they're now largely soldiers. A lot of people have been killed and the cities look like demolition sites." When and where remains to be seen.
Greenland-Panama
🌸Yet this man who professes peace is now eyeing Greenland and is threatening to take over the Panama canal. In both cases commercial and national security interests are at play.
⛎He was eyeing Greenland during his first term in office, when a wealthy New York friend of his, Ronald S Lauder, spoke about it to Trump. According to reports in 2019, the US National Security Council was asked to look into details for land acquisition.
♑Trump raised the matter with Denmark but was rebuffed. Denmark oversees Greenland though the US has a major military base there. But it now appears that Trump is not the only President to want to take over Greenland. Harry S Truman too was keen to buy Greenland as a part of a Cold War strategy to contain the former Soviet Union.
🌠Today with both China, Russia and the rest of the world looking to control the Artic, jockeying for power has intensified. Denmark’s control of Greenland began around the 14th century, and was integrated in 1953. The region became a self-governing territory in 1979.
♚Greenlanders who have long wanted full independence from Denmark, may not be completely averse to the notion. Many in Greenland believe that economic and commercial ties with the US may give them a better deal than what Denmark now provides. Denmark a close NATO ally of the US have staunchly opposed the idea. How this plays out is not clear yet, though Trump has not ruled out military intervention.
Panama Threat
The Panama canal was built by the US but was handed over by President Jimmy Carter ꦍin 1978. The US Congress secured the two-thirds vote needed to return the canal to Panama. It was done to further US ties with Panama’s government. The treaty that had bipartisan support of presidents, Ronald Reagan, George Bush senior and Bill Clinton, became fully operational on December 31, 1999. Since the canal is under Panama’s control.
💯Trump now claims that Panama has handed down operations of the canal to China. US cargo ships are paying for the use of the canal that was built by American money and sweat, according to Trump. Panama’s president Jose Raul Mulino had refuted claims of Chinese control of the canal, though Chinese ships regularly ply through it. “As President, I want to express precisely that every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA, and will continue to be,” Panama president Jose Raul Mulino said recently.
💫But if Trump wants to take over the canal, it would be a cakewalk for the US military. It is a country with just over four million people. Would it be worth while for America to do so. Or is this Trump’s negotiating tactic to bring down the rates for US ships using the canal?
🔯At his inauguration Trump said: "The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons." This is what Trump loves to do, keep his opponents guessing.
